TheDowneyProfile.comThe Grade II Illinois Derby looks like an orchestra with no conductor, as the morning line odds indicate. I am increasingly skeptical of Beyer's figures, but when you look at SONG OF THE SWORD, his Beyer numbers, coming from the class of races in which he's competed, and matched with his pure speed and track variant numbers, make him my pick in this race.The rest of the cast poses so many possibilities that a three-horse exacta box offers both high reward and a case of dementia. I like SKIPASLEW off of his troubled run off the shelf in the Grade III El Camino Real, and O.K. MIKIE, who closed very nicely in the same race, only to miss by a half.
For a fourth selection, and to increase the cost of your box, you have to like POLLARD'S VISION, not only off his entire record, but also his last two races, including his third to Wimbledon and Borrego in the Grade II Louisiana Derby. Although he's the morning line favorite, I don't pick him on top because he's a son of sprinter-sire Carson City and may get tired in the final sixteenth.Mike's Picks:1. SONG OF THE SWORD
3. O.K. MIKIE
4. POLLARD'S VISION