Analyzing Keeneland Sale by Prices

The Keeneland November breeding stock sale is showing strength at the top.

As the Keeneland November breeding stock sale concludes its ninth day, the market is showing resilience that is boosted by strength in the upper price ranges.

Based on the 2,169 horses sold through Tuesday, Nov. 13, there had been 112 horses sold for prices below $10,000, compared with 138 individuals in that price range one year ago through the same number of sessions.

At the other end of the spectrum, there were 41 horses selling for prices in excess of $1 million this year, compared with 27 seven-figure horses last year.

Breaking down the numbers even further, the numbers show the greatest weakness at the low end was in the $5,000-$7,499 range, where the number sold fell by 40.7% from 54 in 2006 to 32 this year.

Continuing on up the price ladder, there were only 129 horses sold for prices between $10,000 and $19,999 this year, compared with 190 a year ago.

The increases in number and percentage sold escalates as the prices go up. For example, there was an 11.7% gain in the $20,000-$24,999 price range, from 103 in 2006 to 117 this year, but there were only a nominal increase or decrease in the next major category of $25,000-$49,999, with 455 horses sold in that range this year, compared with 446 last year.

The strength of the market continued as the prices escalated, with a 16.5% increase in horses selling between $50,000-$59,999 (162 in 2007 versus 139 in 2006), a 7% rise in the $60,000-$69,999 range, and an increase of 21.7% from 92 last year to 112 sold for prices between $70,000-$79,999. There was only a nominal decrease of one horse in the $80,000-$89,999 range, but a 17.6% increase (from 51 to 60) from $90,000-$99,999.

Within the price range of $100,000-$199,999, there was actually a decline in number of horses sold so far this year, with 397 compared with 415 one year ago. The much broader price range of $200,000-$499,999 also showed a downturn, from 303 in 2006 to 283 this year. There was continued flatness from the $500,000-$749,999, from 49 in 2006 to 42 this year.

In addition to the very top, over seven figures, the next biggest gain came just below the top, as there 25 horses bringing final bids between $750,000 and $999,999, compared with only 13 in this category a year ago.