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Connections of one horse hope to celebrate his third birthday in the winner's circle after the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. That horse is Saint Paul.
Friday, March 02, 2007The colt's workouts have been picture-perfect, he's drawn post 5, and Barclay Tagg is, dare I say it, confident. Nobiz Like Shobiz is all set to win the Fountain of Youth Stakes.
Friday, March 02, 2007Hard Spun has four of a kind going into Monday's Southwest Stakes. We see a straight flush coming.
Sunday, February 18, 2007Any Given Saturday, a $1.1 million Keeneland yearling purchase, goes into the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs with one thing to prove--whether he's matured from his headstrong ways.
Friday, February 16, 2007Saturday's a big day for the new connections of Lawrence the Roman, who will leave the gate the favorite in the Whirlaway Stakes.
Friday, February 09, 2007Established star John Velazquez was booked to ride favored Circular Quay in the grade III Risen Star, but there's another star-quality jockey coming to New Orleans for this race who's getting less attention.
Thursday, February 08, 2007What an odd grade III race the Sham is. There's a maiden coming in off a 13-day break, a horse that broke its maiden in its second and most recent start, a $7,000 horse with enough earnings already to assure it of a berth in the Kentucky Derby, a turf runner switching to the dirt, and an invader from New Mexico. Let's try to figure out what is and isn't a sham here.
Friday, February 02, 2007Some bits of Breeders' Cup XXIII trivia to throw in the conversation while you debate this year's fields.
Friday, October 27, 2006Deeds speak louder than words. In racing, sometimes it pays to take heed of what people do, not just what horses have done. So let's get right down to business and say that Nobiz Like Shobiz is going to win the Champage Stakes (gr. I) at Belmont Park on Saturday.
Friday, October 13, 2006There are many fine Breeders' Cup World Championships prep races around the country this weekend, and two of them have been chosen for preview here: The Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes (gr. I) and the Lane's End Breeders' Futurity Stakes (gr. I), both at Keeneland on Saturday.
Thursday, October 05, 2006The Triple Crown series is North American racing's richest tradition. So why all the doom and gloom? Last time I checked, there's a big race for 3-year-olds coming up Saturday. More....
Thursday, June 08, 2006The field for the grade II Peter Pan isn't too bad, but we view Sunriver as a standout in this race.
Friday, May 19, 2006Figures don't lie. At the eighth pole in 48 of the last 51 Kentucky Derbys, the winner was either on the lead, within a length of the lead, or running second although more than a length off the leader.
Tuesday, May 02, 2006One highly weighted part of the Downey Profile is the Beyer factor, which goes like this: The horse must run a Beyer speed figure of 100 or more in each of its final two Kentucky Derby preps. This year, following the 2005 Derby when not one starter had the Beyer factor, normalcy has returned.
Tuesday, May 02, 2006If you're a Kentucky Derby handicapper, you've probably heard on occasion that early-born foals have an advantage when racing on the first Saturday in May. However, matters of record lead to the opposite conclusion.
Friday, April 28, 2006Numerous events over the weekend changed the makeup of the potential field for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I). Ranked by earnings in graded stakes, which will determine the Derby field if more than 20 horses are entered, here is the latest contender list, including jockeys.
Monday, April 24, 2006Even though the Coolmore Lexington Stakes (gr. II) is 110 yards shorter than the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I), the run to the first turn is the same distance. So who'll be running on the lead when they start turning left? And will speed hold up again?
Thursday, April 20, 2006With the defection of WELL SAID, an overflow field of 13 remains in the grade II Arkansas Derby. LAWYER RON is the 7-5 morning line favorite, and deservedly so.
Friday, April 14, 2006Inside speed rules at Keeneland, and though we don't expect him to grab the lead at the outset, our choice to win the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) is the aptly-named Bluegrass Cat.
Friday, April 14, 2006The Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I), is restricted to 20 starters. If more than 20 horses are entered, total earnings in graded stakes determine the priority of starters. Link to an updated list of contenders by graded earnings, complete through racing of April 9.
Monday, April 10, 2006While the morning line makes Cause to Believe the 5-2 favorite in Saturday's Illinois Derby (gr. II), we think he's more deserving than that.
Thursday, April 06, 2006A SUNRIVER, that is. The reasons for this top selection in the grade I Florida Derby are simple and to the point.
Friday, March 31, 2006Saturday's edition of the grade II Lane's End Stakes will be the first ever run on Turfway Park's Polytrack. Horses have come in from all over the place--many of them with turf pedigrees--to try to earn graded money at this stop on the Kentucky Derby road. With this collision of talent, here's no telling what the pari-mutuel payoffs could be.
Friday, March 24, 2006We think there is no reason to deviate from the trend of favorites winning races on this year's Road to the Kentucky Derby in Saturday's Tampa Bay Derby (gr. III). Coming into the race, Bluegrass Cat looks like he'll whip this field.
Friday, March 17, 2006This race has it all. Worthy past performances. Terrific workout lines. High profile, solid connections. Quality breeding. From a handicapping perspective, there is good reason to swing for extra bases here, not just a single. From a talent perspective, there are several in here with a legitimate chance to win. Therefore, we can't go with the one who's getting the most attention, First Samurai, to win the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II).
Friday, March 03, 2006This year's top 3-year-olds at Oaklawn Park are Lawyer Ron and Music School. Lawyer Ron is the Downey Profile pick to win Saturday's Southwest Stakes, but another important issue is whether Music School will show improvement in his second outing this year, and if so, how much.
Thursday, February 23, 2006This year's top 3-year-old at Oaklawn Park is Lawyer Ron, and he's our choice to win Monday's Southwest Stakes. A more difficult issue, at least as far as we're concerned, is what will round out the board.
Sunday, February 19, 2006Saturday's Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs has long been a traditional prep race for the grade III Tampa Bay Derby, but this year's 26th running holds importance in its own right. No less than Bluegrass Cat and Hesanoldsalt ship up from South Florida to test the waters against 10 others, many of whom are worthy foes.
Friday, February 17, 2006Achilles of Troy will be an overwhelming favorite in Saturday's $65,000 Whirlaway Stakes, but will he win the race? There are two indications that he might be vulnerable. Regardless of the outcome, the race doesn't have significant Kentucky Derby implications, since there are no graded earnings at stake.
Friday, February 10, 2006Barbaro means "barbarian" in Portugese. When one does something superior, that is called "barbaro" as well. Each usage may well describe Barbaro when all is said and done, and he is our pick to win the grade III Holy Bull Stakes.
Thursday, February 02, 2006Kentucky Derby Future Wager 1, open Thursday through Sunday, is a tough bet. One thing to consider in this wager is, as with any bet, value. To that end, the morning lines of Future Wager 1 individual entries were compared with betting lines offered on two internet betting outlets prior to the opening of the pool.
Thursday, January 26, 2006The question in the 67th Santa Anita Derby, with Lion Heart going to Lexington to run in the Grade I Toyota Blue Grass Stakes instead of here, is who will go to the lead.
Friday, April 02, 2004Although we're fascinated with numbers at TheDowneyProfile.com, we are not into numerology. However, it doesn't take much imagination to conjure up a projected field of 13 in Kentucky Derby 130.
Thursday, March 25, 2004On paper, The 33rd running of the Grade II, $500,000 Lane's End Stakes looks like a one horse race. You guessed it, Birdstone, the even money morning line favorite.
Friday, March 19, 2004While we haven't been covering Saratoga County as a potential Kentucky Derby contender on
TheDowneyProfile.com, he is nominated to the Triple Crown, and there are several angles going for him in the Gotham.
Nine Irish-based, Aiden O'Brien-trained colts, led by ONE COOL CAT and GRAND REWARD, were nominated to the 2004 VISA Triple Crown Challenge. Only one of them, TUMBLEBRUTUS, has raced in the United States.
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