+10000000)+'&millis='+new Date().getTime()+'&zid=472&keywords=thedowneyprofilecom&referrer='+encodeURIComponent(document.location)+')
Handicapping and analysis of Kentucky Derby and prep races.
Friday, April 23, 2010Question: Which horse in the grade I Toyota Blue Grass has run best on Keeneland's Polytrack?
Thursday, April 08, 2010The 2010 edition of the grade III Illinois Derby is not a very good race, but it's a good betting race.
Friday, April 02, 2010Any horse moving on to the Kentucky Derby from the Grade I Wood Memorial will be deprived of competing against a large field on Saturday. Aside from that, this could turn into a rider's race and odd things could happen.
Thursday, April 01, 2010Connemara is the early favorite in the grade II Lane's End Stakes, so let's try to beat him with a concise analysis. This is a tough race to handicap, so I will go with value lurking in the shadows.
Friday, March 26, 2010The early pace will definitively shape the Louisiana Derby, and so we should know after about a half-mile if the closers have a chance to win. Will there be enough early lick for that to happen?
Thursday, March 25, 2010The pace scenario in the grade II Rebel is neatly arranged. From seven entries, we have one with early speed, one that lags back, and five that can be expected to press or stalk. The stalker that finishes best should win.
Friday, March 12, 2010Only seven are entered in the Tampa Bay Derby, but boy, what a tough race--unless Super Saver runs the way he did in his last race--or Odysseus.
Thursday, March 11, 2010I really hope it doesn't rain too hard at Santa Anita on Saturday because I am getting tired of these postponements.
Thursday, March 04, 2010The first Kentucky Derby Graded Earnings list to be released this year has 47 horses listed.
Friday, February 26, 2010The grade III Sham Stakes brings together a mixture of local horses looking to break out of maiden and allowance company in a big way.
Friday, February 26, 2010With new positions in a re-drawn Southwest Stakes, the complexion of the race has changed.
Friday, February 19, 2010He isn't the most expensive horse in the Southwest Stakes, he hasn't raced at the track, and he ships in with a lack of two-turn experience. But he might just win this race.
Monday, February 15, 2010Saturday, Feb. 6, is the third anniversary of Tiz Chrome's foal date, and connections may very well have a birthday party in the winner's circle of the grade II Robert B. Lewis Stakes.
Thursday, February 04, 2010As the grade I Shadwell Turf Mile approaches, we always look to the family of Northern Dancer for influence in this race.
Thursday, October 08, 2009With the focus squarely on three horses at low odds in the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II), let's see if there's an upset in the making.
Friday, May 08, 2009In 51 of the last 54 runnings of the Kentucky Derby, the winner was either on the lead with an eighth of a mile to go in the race, within a length of the lead, or running second although more than a length off the leader at that point. In all, 40 of the last 54 winners, or 74%, were on the lead at the eighth pole.
Thursday, April 30, 2009Concise, collated Kentucky Derby workouts and workout schedules, horse by horse, through April 25.
Saturday, April 25, 2009Concise, collated Kentucky Derby workouts and workout schedules, horse by horse, are set out through April 24.
Friday, April 24, 2009One handicapping angle for the Kentucky Derby has been: Whether the horse finished the final 3/8 mile of a 1 1/8-mile prep race in under 38 seconds. Forget about that this year, and here's why.
Tuesday, April 14, 2009At Keeneland, it's often worthwhile to back those with Storm Cat in their pedigree, so Hold Me Back is in focus for the Grade I Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.
Thursday, April 09, 2009Early pace often makes the race in the grade II Illinois Derby, and this Saturday may not be much different than usual.
Friday, April 03, 2009The Grade I Wood Memorial looks like a two-horse race, and of course one of them has to be outside the other. On Saturday, Imperial Council gets that advantage as he and Edgar Prado will have their sights set on I Want Revenge and Joe Talamo.
Thursday, April 02, 2009Six weeks out from the Kentucky Derby and offering $500,000 in purse money on a synthetic track in Kentucky, the Lane's End Stakes is unique in its offering the first gathering of national stables in the Bluegrass State for a run at the first Saturday in May.
Thursday, March 19, 2009There's a reasonable chance of a wet track at Oaklawn Park on Saturday, and that might help out several entries in the Grade II Rebel Stakes.
Friday, March 13, 2009Will Friesan Fire, whom Larry Jones says is "getting very, very good right now," sweep the Fair Grounds sophomore stakes? Will Flying Pegasus move forward in his second start off the long layoff? Will Papa Clem step up in his first race on dirt? Will Patena reward the investment made by IEAH Stables? Now THIS is why they run races.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009Saturday at Aqueduct, we're looking for a horse that might be prepared to move forward the most. Between our top two picks, there's one obvious choice, and one that's maybe not so obvious.
Thursday, March 05, 2009Our core premise in the one-mile, grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes is that if Notonthesamepage breaks well, he's going to shoot for the lead, and almost all the others will struggle to, well, stay on the same page with him. The question thus becomes whether there's anything in the race that will overtake him.
Thursday, February 26, 2009Bet A Gray on Derby Day? If you're a Kentucky Derby bettor who likes patterns that have nothing to do with performance or pedigree--in other words, you believe in the Derby gods--look for a gray to win the Kentucky Derby this year. There is a definite cycle at work, and it's been happening every four years.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009The Sam F. Davis Stakes was afforded well-deserved grade III status this year, but unfortunately, going in, the race has come up light. But we do see at least one potential star among the 11 entries. Only four of the entries have graded stakes experience, and from a combined six starts, they've been beaten 70 1/4 lengths.
Friday, February 13, 2009With West Side Bernie and Beethoven parked outside in posts 10 and 11 going 1 1/8 mile in the Grade III Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park, there is reason to look elsewhere for a winner despite the legitimate talents of each of those horses and their connections.
Thursday, January 29, 2009The major Breeders' Cup preps are in the books, so let's see if we can figure Saturday's Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Keeneland, an outstanding competition for 3-year-old fillies on the turf. We'll keep it short and, we hope, sweet.
Friday, October 10, 2008With three weeks to go before Breeders' Cup, it's another amazing weekend of racing. Let's take a look over and under the radar at five selected races and try to get some winners.
Friday, October 03, 2008The weekend's major stakes schedule is like a seven-course dinner--a wide variety of dishes that will take over four hours to complete. And that doesn't count three "Win and You're In" races at Ascot. Let's hope the Picks digest well.
Friday, September 26, 2008Just our opinion, but all extrinsic factors aside for the time being, it doesn't seem fair to dismiss Big Brown's accomplishments, however brief they may be, by saying his competition is weak.
Friday, May 23, 2008No one horse expected to run in the 2008 Kentucky Derby is an absolute standout if examined purely by the numbers produced for their best 3-year-old races by Brisnet, Beyer and Daily Racing Form. They're compiled here side-by-side for easy comparison.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008If you're a Kentucky Derby handicapper, breeder or owner, the 2008 contenders' states and dates of birth might be of interest to you--particularly the states. And since homebreds have won the last four runnings of the Derby, we'll take a look at that here, too.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Four new names entered the fray that's called the Road to the Kentucky Derby on Saturday with wins and placings in the grade I Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and grade II Arkansas Derby. And with their good fortune, the dreams of others were dampened if not outright doused.
Sunday, April 13, 2008Can trainer Steve Asmussen pull off a Derby prep double on Saturday? He has a good shot with Pyro in the first leg, but what about the grade II Arkansas Derby?
Friday, April 11, 2008Before I looked twice at the past performances, I was concerned that trainer Nick Zito ordered the final Wood Memorial workout for War Pass nine days before the grade I race. But then I realized the trainer was following a pattern familiar to him and his horse.
Friday, April 04, 2008It's time for the annual head-to-head matchup of Dick and Cheap Speed in the grade II Lane's End Stakes. This race almost always produces substantial payoffs.
Thursday, March 20, 2008Denis of Cork, at 8-1 in the morning line, is the Southwest pick.
Sunday, February 17, 2008On paper, Z Humor tops the field in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, and his running style and jockey Garrett Gomez should get him into position to win. The question will be whether he can relax in the opening stages of the race.
Friday, February 15, 2008Last year, trainer Steve Asmussen finished third in the grade III Risen Star Stakes, beaten by shippers from California and Florida. This year, he appears to have the upper hand with Pyro.
Thursday, February 07, 2008We have one horse in mind for the top spot in Saturday's Grade II Robert B. Lewis, and that is the aptly-named Crown of Thorns, a son of Repent trained by Richard Mandella.
Friday, February 01, 2008Three of our top four quick picks for Saturday's grade I Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes at Keeneland came out of a strong grade I race at Belmont Park. The key to this race might be whether any of these can dictate a moderate pace and stay on to win.
Friday, October 12, 2007The grade I Lane's End Breeders' Futurity is one of several "Win and You're In" Breeders' Cup preps. Unlike many of these Challenge Races, the Lane's End might truly be described as "Lose and You're Out."
Thursday, October 04, 2007Friday's grade I Darley Alcibiades looks to be a solid prep for the Breeders' Cup Grey Goose Juvenile Fillies (gr. I). Doug O'Neill, who's shipped in Grace Anatomy from California to face a dozen other 2-year-old fillies, might even say it's "fantastic".
Wednesday, October 03, 2007This is the year of the Usual Suspects in the Kentucky Derby. Not in over a decade have so many horses highly regarded as 2-year-olds made it into the Derby field--and offered a chance for a Dual Qualfier to once again take the Roses.
Wednesday, May 02, 2007In 49 of the last 52 runnings of the Kentucky Derby, the winner was either on the lead with an eighth of a mile to go in the race, within a length of the lead, or running second although more than a length off the leader at that point.
Tuesday, May 01, 2007+10000000)+'&millis='+new Date().getTime()+'&zid=473&keywords=thedowneyprofilecom&referrer='+encodeURIComponent(document.location)+')
+10000000)+'&millis='+new Date().getTime()+'&zid=476&keywords=thedowneyprofilecom&referrer='+encodeURIComponent(document.location)+')
+10000000)+'&millis='+new Date().getTime()+'&zid=441&keywords=thedowneyprofilecom&referrer='+encodeURIComponent(document.location)+')
+10000000)+'&millis='+new Date().getTime()+'&zid=366&keywords=thedowneyprofilecom&referrer='+encodeURIComponent(document.location)+')
+10000000)+'&millis='+new Date().getTime()+'&zid=466&referrer='+encodeURIComponent(document.location)+')
Copyright © 2013 Blood-Horse Publications. All rights reserved internationally.
+10000000)+'&millis='+new Date().getTime()+'&zid=601&referrer='+encodeURIComponent(document.location)+')