The Downey Profile

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Downey Profile: Derby by the Speed Numbers

In 55 of the last 59 runnings of the Kentucky Derby, the winner was either on the lead with an eighth of a mile to go in the race, within a length of the lead, or running second although more than a length off the leader.

New: Kentucky Derby Graded Earnings List

With nearly all of the prep races for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) completed, here are the rankings by earnings in graded stakes races that will be used to determine the 20 starters in the classic.

Will Derby '09 Be Another Trend-Breaker?

They say in the markets, or used to say it anyway, that the trend is your friend. Not always so in the Kentucky Derby, however. Will this be yet another year for a Kentucky Derby barrier to fall? Let's take a look at the past, which is known, and the future, which is unknowable. As the clock tower at The Curragh says, "Time Reveals All."

Jockey Angle in Risen Star

Shaun Bridgmohan, who's been riding all three of the Steve Asmussen entries in the Risen Star--Dumar (Worth Watching), Soul Warrior (Worth Watching) and Uno Mas (Worth Watching)--has chosen to get on board Dumar, who's a 20-1 morning line.

Downey: Rebel's 'Other' Other Colt

On Monday, Steve Asmussen sent two colts out to breeze on the track, one at Oaklawn Park, and one at Fair Grounds. But both are entered in the Grade II Rebel Stakes.

The Downey Profile: Derby by the Numbers

If four or five contenders start in the 2007 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) off only two prior 3-year-old starts, history shows us it's been tried before--but not much, and with mixed success. Here are some hard statistics.

Downey Profile Analysis: A Contrarian View of the Rebel Stakes

The Kentucky Derby picture may start looking somewhat muddled at some point, but so far this year, the Road to the Derby has been pretty clear-cut. Favorites won the San Rafael (gr. II), Holy Bull (gr. III), Sham (gr. III), San Vicente (gr. II), Whirlaway, Sam F. Davis, Southwest, Santa Catalina (gr. II), and the California Derby. The gravitational pull is so hard, a disqualification placed the favorite first in the Fountain of Youth (gr. II). The issue this weekend is whether we view the trend as our friend in the Rebel Stakes (gr. III). We'll take the contrarian view, if things develop as we think they will.

Downey Profile Analysis: 'Horse for the Course' Doesn't Work in Derby

At TheDowneyProfile.com, we utilize 13 factors more common to Kentucky Derby winners than non-winners, based on our 33-year study, in order to create an objective, weighted-factor predictor of Kentucky Derby success. One factor that we do not use is the "horse for the course" handicapping angle, the one that looks to horses that have run well at Churchill Downs.

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