Dick Downey

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Birthday Boy Tiz Chrome Pick in Lewis

Saturday, Feb. 6, is the third anniversary of Tiz Chrome's foal date, and connections may very well have a birthday party in the winner's circle of the grade II Robert B. Lewis Stakes.

Kruytbosch's Memory Lives On at Churchill

On Friday, the day before the opening of Churchill Downs' Spring-Summer meet, Bobbie Jo Porter received a gift. It was a remembrance she didn't expect, but one she cherishes. And it was the simplest of gifts.

Flying at the End: These Guys Can Run

One handicapping angle for the Kentucky Derby has been: Whether the horse finished the final 3/8 mile of a 1 1/8-mile prep race in under 38 seconds. Forget about that this year, and here's why.

'Council' Seeks Revenge in Wood Memorial

The Grade I Wood Memorial looks like a two-horse race, and of course one of them has to be outside the other. On Saturday, Imperial Council gets that advantage as he and Edgar Prado will have their sights set on I Want Revenge and Joe Talamo.

Dunkirk: Divergent Points of View

The fact that we may all look at the same information and come away with different impressions is honed to a fine point with the impending start of Dunkirk in the Grade I Florida Derby.

Will Derby '09 Be Another Trend-Breaker?

They say in the markets, or used to say it anyway, that the trend is your friend. Not always so in the Kentucky Derby, however. Will this be yet another year for a Kentucky Derby barrier to fall? Let's take a look at the past, which is known, and the future, which is unknowable. As the clock tower at The Curragh says, "Time Reveals All."

Lane's End: 'The' Unique Derby Prep Race

Six weeks out from the Kentucky Derby and offering $500,000 in purse money on a synthetic track in Kentucky, the Lane's End Stakes is unique in its offering the first gathering of national stables in the Bluegrass State for a run at the first Saturday in May.

La. Derby: THIS Is Why They Run Races

Will Friesan Fire, whom Larry Jones says is "getting very, very good right now," sweep the Fair Grounds sophomore stakes? Will Flying Pegasus move forward in his second start off the long layoff? Will Papa Clem step up in his first race on dirt? Will Patena reward the investment made by IEAH Stables? Now THIS is why they run races.

Downey: A Longshot for the Gotham

Saturday at Aqueduct, we're looking for a horse that might be prepared to move forward the most. Between our top two picks, there's one obvious choice, and one that's maybe not so obvious.

Graded Earnings List: Uncharted Terrain

Although they have significant graded earnings, there are several Kentucky Derby contenders who are flying well below the radar so far this year. Our graded earnings chart, posted for the first time today, reveals five horses in the top 24 that are in training but haven't raced yet in 2009, and four more in that group that finished fourth or worse in their most recent races. Of the top 44, there are 13 in these two categories.

Fountain of Youth: Pace Makes the Race

Our core premise in the one-mile, grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes is that if Notonthesamepage breaks well, he's going to shoot for the lead, and almost all the others will struggle to, well, stay on the same page with him. The question thus becomes whether there's anything in the race that will overtake him.

Bet A Gray on Derby Day?

Bet A Gray on Derby Day? If you're a Kentucky Derby bettor who likes patterns that have nothing to do with performance or pedigree--in other words, you believe in the Derby gods--look for a gray to win the Kentucky Derby this year. There is a definite cycle at work, and it's been happening every four years.

Star Could Emerge from Sam F. Davis

The Sam F. Davis Stakes was afforded well-deserved grade III status this year, but unfortunately, going in, the race has come up light. But we do see at least one potential star among the 11 entries. Only four of the entries have graded stakes experience, and from a combined six starts, they've been beaten 70 1/4 lengths.

Jockey Angle in Risen Star

Shaun Bridgmohan, who's been riding all three of the Steve Asmussen entries in the Risen Star--Dumar (Worth Watching), Soul Warrior (Worth Watching) and Uno Mas (Worth Watching)--has chosen to get on board Dumar, who's a 20-1 morning line.

Holy Bull! What A Betting Race

With West Side Bernie and Beethoven parked outside in posts 10 and 11 going 1 1/8 mile in the Grade III Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park, there is reason to look elsewhere for a winner despite the legitimate talents of each of those horses and their connections.

Short and Sweet: The Queen Elizabeth II

The major Breeders' Cup preps are in the books, so let's see if we can figure Saturday's Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Keeneland, an outstanding competition for 3-year-old fillies on the turf. We'll keep it short and, we hope, sweet.

Handicapping the Cup Preps: A Tasty Menu

The weekend's major stakes schedule is like a seven-course dinner--a wide variety of dishes that will take over four hours to complete. And that doesn't count three "Win and You're In" races at Ascot. Let's hope the Picks digest well.

Opposing Talent Often Key to Winning TC

Just our opinion, but all extrinsic factors aside for the time being, it doesn't seem fair to dismiss Big Brown's accomplishments, however brief they may be, by saying his competition is weak.

This Road to the Derby Is Curvy Indeed

This Road to the Derby Is Curvy Indeed

Four new names entered the fray that's called the Road to the Kentucky Derby on Saturday with wins and placings in the grade I Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and grade II Arkansas Derby. And with their good fortune, the dreams of others were dampened if not outright doused.

Downey Profile: Early Pace May Be Key in Queen Elizabeth II

Three of our top four quick picks for Saturday's grade I Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes at Keeneland came out of a strong grade I race at Belmont Park. The key to this race might be whether any of these can dictate a moderate pace and stay on to win.

Who'll Get to the Eighth Pole First?

In 49 of the last 52 runnings of the Kentucky Derby, the winner was either on the lead with an eighth of a mile to go in the race, within a length of the lead, or running second although more than a length off the leader at that point.

Downey Profile: 'Horse for Course' Hasn't Worked in Derby

At TheDowneyProfile.com, we utilize thirteen factors more common to Kentucky Derby winners than non-winners, based on our 34-year study, in order to create an objective, weighted-factor predictor of Kentucky Derby success. One factor that we do not use is the "horse for the course" handicapping angle, the one that looks to horses that have run well at Churchill Downs.

The Downey Profile: Derby by the Numbers

If four or five contenders start in the 2007 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) off only two prior 3-year-old starts, history shows us it's been tried before--but not much, and with mixed success. Here are some hard statistics.

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