Sham Runners Seek First-Time Graded Win
The grade III Sham Stakes brings together a mixture of local horses looking to break out of maiden and allowance company in a big way.
Dick Downey
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Tough Southwest Could Now Belong to Home Team
With new positions in a re-drawn Southwest Stakes, the complexion of the race has changed.
Tough Southwest Could Belong to Shipper
He isn't the most expensive horse in the Southwest Stakes, he hasn't raced at the track, and he ships in with a lack of two-turn experience. But he might just win this race.
Rule Goes to School in Uptown Sam Davis
Rule looks to be the controlling pace in Saturday's Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) at Tampa Bay Downs, and his speed figures tower over the competition.
Birthday Boy Tiz Chrome Pick in Lewis
Saturday, Feb. 6, is the third anniversary of Tiz Chrome's foal date, and connections may very well have a birthday party in the winner's circle of the grade II Robert B. Lewis Stakes.
Zayat Stables Files Chapter 11 Bankruptcy
- By Ron Mitchell
Though he plans to remain in the Thoroughbred business, prominent horse owner Ahmed Zayat said Feb. 3 he has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection for his Zayat Stables.
Look for Northern Dancer's in Shadwell Turf
As the grade I Shadwell Turf Mile approaches, we always look to the family of Northern Dancer for influence in this race.
Looking for Upset Horse in Peter Pan
With the focus squarely on three horses at low odds in the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II), let's see if there's an upset in the making.
Kruytbosch's Memory Lives On at Churchill
On Friday, the day before the opening of Churchill Downs' Spring-Summer meet, Bobbie Jo Porter received a gift. It was a remembrance she didn't expect, but one she cherishes. And it was the simplest of gifts.
Derby Workouts, Schedules--Updated April 25
Concise, collated Kentucky Derby workouts and workout schedules, horse by horse, through April 25.
Lexington Stakes: Looking for the Upset
With Square Eddie the center of attention in the Grade II Coolmore Lexington Stakes, we look for the contenders to upset him.
Flying at the End: These Guys Can Run
One handicapping angle for the Kentucky Derby has been: Whether the horse finished the final 3/8 mile of a 1 1/8-mile prep race in under 38 seconds. Forget about that this year, and here's why.
Downey: Can Hold Me Back Repeat?
At Keeneland, it's often worthwhile to back those with Storm Cat in their pedigree, so Hold Me Back is in focus for the Grade I Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.
'Council' Seeks Revenge in Wood Memorial
The Grade I Wood Memorial looks like a two-horse race, and of course one of them has to be outside the other. On Saturday, Imperial Council gets that advantage as he and Edgar Prado will have their sights set on I Want Revenge and Joe Talamo.
Dunkirk: Divergent Points of View
The fact that we may all look at the same information and come away with different impressions is honed to a fine point with the impending start of Dunkirk in the Grade I Florida Derby.
Will Derby '09 Be Another Trend-Breaker?
They say in the markets, or used to say it anyway, that the trend is your friend. Not always so in the Kentucky Derby, however. Will this be yet another year for a Kentucky Derby barrier to fall? Let's take a look at the past, which is known, and the future, which is unknowable. As the clock tower at The Curragh says, "Time Reveals All."
Lane's End: 'The' Unique Derby Prep Race
Six weeks out from the Kentucky Derby and offering $500,000 in purse money on a synthetic track in Kentucky, the Lane's End Stakes is unique in its offering the first gathering of national stables in the Bluegrass State for a run at the first Saturday in May.
Wet Track in Rebel Could Aid Several
There's a reasonable chance of a wet track at Oaklawn Park on Saturday, and that might help out several entries in the Grade II Rebel Stakes.
La. Derby: THIS Is Why They Run Races
Will Friesan Fire, whom Larry Jones says is "getting very, very good right now," sweep the Fair Grounds sophomore stakes? Will Flying Pegasus move forward in his second start off the long layoff? Will Papa Clem step up in his first race on dirt? Will Patena reward the investment made by IEAH Stables? Now THIS is why they run races.
Downey: A Longshot for the Gotham
Saturday at Aqueduct, we're looking for a horse that might be prepared to move forward the most. Between our top two picks, there's one obvious choice, and one that's maybe not so obvious.
Graded Earnings List: Uncharted Terrain
Although they have significant graded earnings, there are several Kentucky Derby contenders who are flying well below the radar so far this year. Our graded earnings chart, posted for the first time today, reveals five horses in the top 24 that are in training but haven't raced yet in 2009, and four more in that group that finished fourth or worse in their most recent races. Of the top 44, there are 13 in these two categories.
Fountain of Youth: Pace Makes the Race
Our core premise in the one-mile, grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes is that if Notonthesamepage breaks well, he's going to shoot for the lead, and almost all the others will struggle to, well, stay on the same page with him. The question thus becomes whether there's anything in the race that will overtake him.
Bet A Gray on Derby Day?
Bet A Gray on Derby Day? If you're a Kentucky Derby bettor who likes patterns that have nothing to do with performance or pedigree--in other words, you believe in the Derby gods--look for a gray to win the Kentucky Derby this year. There is a definite cycle at work, and it's been happening every four years.
Star Could Emerge from Sam F. Davis
The Sam F. Davis Stakes was afforded well-deserved grade III status this year, but unfortunately, going in, the race has come up light. But we do see at least one potential star among the 11 entries. Only four of the entries have graded stakes experience, and from a combined six starts, they've been beaten 70 1/4 lengths.
Jockey Angle in Risen Star
Shaun Bridgmohan, who's been riding all three of the Steve Asmussen entries in the Risen Star--Dumar (Worth Watching), Soul Warrior (Worth Watching) and Uno Mas (Worth Watching)--has chosen to get on board Dumar, who's a 20-1 morning line.
Holy Bull! What A Betting Race
With West Side Bernie and Beethoven parked outside in posts 10 and 11 going 1 1/8 mile in the Grade III Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park, there is reason to look elsewhere for a winner despite the legitimate talents of each of those horses and their connections.
Short and Sweet: The Queen Elizabeth II
The major Breeders' Cup preps are in the books, so let's see if we can figure Saturday's Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Keeneland, an outstanding competition for 3-year-old fillies on the turf. We'll keep it short and, we hope, sweet.
Over and Under the Radar in Cup Preps
With three weeks to go before Breeders' Cup, it's another amazing weekend of racing. Let's take a look over and under the radar at five selected races and try to get some winners.
Handicapping the Cup Preps: A Tasty Menu
The weekend's major stakes schedule is like a seven-course dinner--a wide variety of dishes that will take over four hours to complete. And that doesn't count three "Win and You're In" races at Ascot. Let's hope the Picks digest well.
Opposing Talent Often Key to Winning TC
Just our opinion, but all extrinsic factors aside for the time being, it doesn't seem fair to dismiss Big Brown's accomplishments, however brief they may be, by saying his competition is weak.
This Road to the Derby Is Curvy Indeed
Four new names entered the fray that's called the Road to the Kentucky Derby on Saturday with wins and placings in the grade I Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and grade II Arkansas Derby. And with their good fortune, the dreams of others were dampened if not outright doused.
Downey: Asmussen Double at Hot Springs?
Can trainer Steve Asmussen pull off a Derby prep double on Saturday? He has a good shot with Pyro in the first leg, but what about the grade II Arkansas Derby?
Downey: Lane's End Can Yield Jackpot
It's time for the annual head-to-head matchup of Dick and Cheap Speed in the grade II Lane's End Stakes. This race almost always produces substantial payoffs.
Downey Profile: A Corker of a Race
Denis of Cork, at 8-1 in the morning line, is the Southwest pick.
Downey Profile: Early Pace May Be Key in Queen Elizabeth II
Three of our top four quick picks for Saturday's grade I Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes at Keeneland came out of a strong grade I race at Belmont Park. The key to this race might be whether any of these can dictate a moderate pace and stay on to win.
Downey Profile: Alcibiades Looks Like 'Fantastic' Breeders' Cup Prep
Friday's grade I Darley Alcibiades looks to be a solid prep for the Breeders' Cup Grey Goose Juvenile Fillies (gr. I). Doug O'Neill, who's shipped in Grace Anatomy from California to face a dozen other 2-year-old fillies, might even say it's "fantastic".
Keys to Flower Bowl Are Surface and Intent
Saturday's Grade I Flower Bowl Invitational Stakes at Belmont drew nine fillies and mares, almost all of which have a good chance to win the race.
Downey Profile: 'Usual Suspects' Gang Up in Derby 2007
This is the year of the Usual Suspects in the Kentucky Derby. Not in over a decade have so many horses highly regarded as 2-year-olds made it into the Derby field--and offered a chance for a Dual Qualfier to once again take the Roses.
Who'll Get to the Eighth Pole First?
In 49 of the last 52 runnings of the Kentucky Derby, the winner was either on the lead with an eighth of a mile to go in the race, within a length of the lead, or running second although more than a length off the leader at that point.
Downey Profile: 'Horse for Course' Hasn't Worked in Derby
At TheDowneyProfile.com, we utilize thirteen factors more common to Kentucky Derby winners than non-winners, based on our 34-year study, in order to create an objective, weighted-factor predictor of Kentucky Derby success. One factor that we do not use is the "horse for the course" handicapping angle, the one that looks to horses that have run well at Churchill Downs.
Downey Profile: Joe Got Even, Trust Your Luck Need Lexington Reversal of Fortune
The Coolmore Lexington affords an opportunity for two horses to overcome some recent bad luck. One has had bad racing luck, and the other's barn has had just plain bad luck. With a 3-1 morning line favorite, bettors will need all the luck they can get in this grade II race.
The Downey Profile: Tricky Wood a Match Race?
With a field of six likely for the Wood Memorial, will it turn into a match race between Any Given Saturday and Nobiz Like Shobiz? Things could get tricky here.
The Downey Profile: Chelokee the Florida Derby Upset Pick
Sometimes you just have to believe what you see, and what Chelokee did in his last race made a believer out of me. He's the pick to upset in the Florida Derby.
The Downey Profile: Downey and 'Cheap Speed' Duel in the Lane's End
Dick Downey and Mike "Cheap Speed" Pearson renew their annual Dueling Picks for the Grade II Lane's End Stakes. It's time to have a little fun and maybe win some money along the way.
The Downey Profile: Patience Likely to Prevail in Rebel Stakes
In this Rebel Stakes, will the two horses with big numbers and few races prevail? Or will the more veteran starters teach them a thing or two? Our money goes on Bob Holthus and Officer Rocket in a race set up for late runners.
The Downey Profile: Circular Quay Pick to Loop Louisiana Derby Field
For the second time in two races at Fair Grounds, Circular Quay has been made the morning line favorite. Last time he raced, we picked him fourth. This time, we select him to win the grade II Louisiana Derby.
The Downey Profile: Birthday Boy the Robert B. Lewis Pick
Connections of one horse hope to celebrate his third birthday in the winner's circle after the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. That horse is Saint Paul.
The Downey Profile: Tagg Walking Tall with Nobiz Like Shobiz
The colt's workouts have been picture-perfect, he's drawn post 5, and Barclay Tagg is, dare I say it, confident. Nobiz Like Shobiz is all set to win the Fountain of Youth Stakes.
The Downey Profile: Derby by the Numbers
If four or five contenders start in the 2007 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) off only two prior 3-year-old starts, history shows us it's been tried before--but not much, and with mixed success. Here are some hard statistics.
Downey Profile: Hard Spun Flush in Southwest
Hard Spun has four of a kind going into Monday's Southwest Stakes. We see a straight flush coming.
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