20 -- Changeintheweather/Dave Bell; Gone West-Meteor Colony, by Pleasant Colony

We had him ranked pretty high early, and are not going to give up on him by any means. His first start in the U.S. may have looked disappointing at first glance, failing to win off very slow fractions. But he was running against his best style, was down on the rail, and should have been asked to kick on at the three-eighths pole instead of waiting for horses to come up on his outside. He'll run in another allowance race a few days before Florida Derby.

21 -- Easyfromthegitgo/Steve Asmussen; Dehere-Montera, by Easy Goer

Any horse is entitled to get beat somewhere along the way, and, remember, it was Repent he couldn't match strides with. Was running on well enough in the final furlong to suggest he could bounce back with a big effort next time.

22 -- American Style/Nick Zito; Quiet American-Style Setter, by Manila

Nice striding colt with good extension, and showed the type of acceleration you like to see. Improved big-time after being sent to Zito, but he did run big on occasion before, and we need to see some consistency against good horses before we can consider him a major contender.

23--Fonz's/David LaCroix; Out of Place-Seton's Encounter, by Spring Double

He'd be ranked higher if he weren't on a two-race schedule before Derby. As we mentioned before, it's a difficult task to go 1 1/4 miles at Churchill Downs off only two races, and he really doesn't have that solid a 2-year-old foundation under him. But he is a talented colt, so we'll see where we stand with him after the San Rafael.

24 -- Publication/Terry Knight; Petionville-Cat News, by Storm Cat

Another colt who is on a two-race pre Derby schedule. He closed from far back in Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but passed mostly tired horses. He desperately needs two hard races if he's even going to be a factor on the first Saturday in May. Winning the Arlington Futurity off career debut, however, shows it doesn't take him long to get in top form. Louisiana Derby is next.

25 -- Metatron/Jerry Hollendorfer; Silver Ghost-Dancing Ovation, by Northern Jove

Will have his work cut out for him if he goes in the San Rafael, but it's a perfect spot to see how he can handle top-class horses. He's held his own with Came Home already, and may be ready to start making a name for himself.

26 -- Cappuchino/Jerry Hollendorfer; Capote-Tara Roma, by Lyphard

Looks to have the El Camino Real Derby at his mercy if Danthebluegrassman stays home. Should be very effective up to 1 1/8 miles. After that there's a big question mark. Consistent, honest colt.

27 -- Request for Parole/ Steve Margolis; Judge T C-Madison's Quest, by Deputy Minister

Talk about having a race at his mercy, he should be an overwhelming favorite in the John Battaglia. Will remain the proverbial big fish in the little pond until the bigger fish start swimming in for the Spiral Stakes.

28 -- Monarchoftheglen/Niall O'Callaghan; A.P. Indy-Milliardaire, by Alydar

Could be a longshot to keep an eye on. Considering the obstacles he had to overcome, ran a big race in his U.S. debut. Broke badly, went 5-wide into first turn, then rallied around horses on the far turn to reach contention. Raced greenly after turning for home and never changed leads. With this race under him, he should have gained enough experience to move on to better things.

29 -- Charioteer/Todd Pletcher; Silver Deputy-New Wave, by Dynaformer

Beat up on a weak bunch in Gulfstream allowance sprint, but did everything the right way, winning with total ease. Has effortless stride and looked like he was just getting rolling in the final eighth. If he keeps improving stretching out, he should develop into a classy colt. Louisiana Derby or Tampa Bay Derby likely next stop.

30 -- Clergy/Frank Brothers: Pulpit-Minery, by Forty Niner

Won his only two starts at 6 furlongs, but everyone he's beaten has come back to run big, so he may be a colt to reckon with. We'll know a lot more when he stretches out to a mile in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn.

KNOCKING ON THE DOOR:
HOLDTHEHELM came from 12th, a dozen lengths back turning for home, to finish fifth in a five-horse photo in 6 1/2-furlong Baldwin Stakes on grass. Frankly, we have no idea what path this horse is on, but if he goes back to two turns on dirt he could be one to watch. If MR. MELLON can make up for time lost, he could have a say in upcoming stakes; looked very impressive breaking his maiden at Gulfstream going 1 1/16 miles. Speaking of Gulfstream maiden races, FAST DECISION won by 2 1/2 lengths in a swift 1:22 3/5 for the 7 furlongs. Tony Dutrow-trained SMOOTH JAZZ made it two-for-two with a victory in 6-furlong Best Turn Stakes. ESSENCE OF DUBAI and JANADEL make up the first Godolphin push at the Derby when they run in Thursday's UAE 2,000 Guineas. WINDWARD PASSAGE turned in a solid 5-furlong breeze in 1:01 3/5 at Fair Grounds; Team Valor looking for revenge with son of Derby runner-up Captain Bodgit. Bob Baffert may run MOUNTAIN RAGE in the San Felipe along with Danthebluegrassman in a last-ditch attempt to come up with a Derby contender. DEFINITE EDGE bled badly in Sham, but bounced back with sharp half-mile work last week in :47 3/5. MAYAKOVSKY continues to work well for his debut, but trying to make the Derby is really pushing it. SHAH JEHAN worked 5 furlongs in 1:00 1/5; Lukas hoping last-place finish in debut was a fluke; may run him in San Rafael. Carl Nafzger's promising FLYING FREE has had a fever for three days and is pretty much off the Derby trail.

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