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Show Me The Money! Haskin Analyzes Derby Future Wagers

Updated: Friday, February 15, 2002 6:01 PM
Posted: Tuesday, February 12, 2002 3:56 PM
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Horse, Morning-Line Odds From Churchill Downs: Steve Haskin's Analysis

1--Booklet, 15-1: Obviously, you have to wait on any horse running in the the Fountain of Youth, but with his pedigree and running style, 15-1 seems kind of low.

2--Came Home, 10-1: The same can be said for him, except he hasn't been two turns yet, and at 10-1, has a long way to go to prove he wants any part of 1 1/4 miles.

3--Cappuchino, 50-1: At least these odds are more realistic Tough, fast Northern California colt, but once again, there's a question regarding how far he wants to go.

4--Danthebluegrassman, 30-1: This is Bob Baffert's main hope as of now, and he's keeping him with horses he's already beaten. Doesn't scream out 1 1/4 miles, but an honest colt.

5--Easyfromthegitgo, 30-1: If he's 30-1 on Sunday it means he didn't run that great in the Risen Star. If he loses to a more experienced horse, but is running at the end, then go for it.

6--Fonz's, 15-1: Another short price on a horse with stamina questions. Main concern with him is how many starts he's going to have before Derby. Could be only two – San Rafael and Santa Anita Derby.

7--Grey Beard, 50-1: One of several Fountain of Youth unknowns. Anyone can win this race and leap up to the top of the list. Game winner of last against a very good horse, who came back to be nosed in the Hutcheson.

8--Harlan's Holiday, 12-1: Solid, consistent colt, who should improve off his second in the Holy Bull. He's been working sharply and has an advantage over most of the others in Fountain of Youth in that he's a seasoned, proven stakes horse.

9--High Star, 30-1: Nick Zito's big Derby hope. Ran a huge race against Repent in Kentucky Jockey Club off maiden win, and was impressive winning allowance race at Gulfstream. Zito in no rush with with him.

10--Johannesburg, 10-1: You're banking on a lot. Although by far the most talented colt we've seen so far, he's been behind in his training due to bad weather, and will have only two starts before Derby. Won't even know his plans until March. Pedigree on borderline.

11--King's Consul, 50-1: Don't know what the criteria is to make the field, but with one slow seven-furlong maiden victory in only career start, his inclusion seems baffling. Even if he makes Derby, we're looking at a possible three career starts. $5.3 million yearling or not, can't understand why he's here.

12--Maybry's Boy, 50-1: Deserves another chance in Fountain of Youth after poor effort in Hutcheson, in which he was bogged down in quagmire-like track, negating his big closing punch. McGaughey was reluctant to stretch him out until now.

13--Nokoma, 30-1: Double the odds of Saarland, who beat him a zap in the Remsen. If you throw out the Holy Bull, feeling he just didn't take to that deep track, then you've got a live longshot on your hands. We still feel he's a very talented colt and definitely worth the price.

14--Pelirrojo, 50-1: Rebounded from disappointing effort with strong victory in one-mile allowance race. Time was kind of slow, and they didn't come home very fast, but he has a lot of room for improvement, and 50-1 in pretty enticing.

15--Political Attack, 30-1: A big workout impressed his trainer, who decided top put him in the Fountain of Youth. Looked good winning Tropical Park Derby, taken off the turf, so you just don't know. Could run big on Saturday.

16--Repent, 10-1: Just watch the Risen Star; it's that simple. We all know what's there, and it's just a question of how he runs first time out against a pretty tough field. A victory could make him the new Derby favorite. He should love that long stretch.

17--Request for Parole, 20-1: Hard-knocking, honest colt, who should reign supreme at Turfway until the heavy hitters ship in for the Spiral Stakes. You'll at least be alive for a while.

18--Saarland, 15-1: Pretty generous odds when you consider he's rated equal or worse than Booklet, Came Home, and Fonz's. He's still a big kid who has a lot to learn, but the looks and talent are there. Needs to show he's faster than what we've seen so far. The key to him is how he improves. Needs to find a race very soon.

19--Saratoga Blues, 20-1: If he's 20-1 or higher, we'd definitely take a piece of that action. This colt looks to have all the tools. He's got speed, he can rate, he's a real pro, despite only three starts, and he has an awesome pedigree, with major C.V. Whitney influence.

20--Siphonic, 6-1: No horse is worth only 6-1 this year, but this colt is a worthy favorite (not counting mutuel field). Came out of Santa Catalina loss with a stiff neck, but is back working for San Felipe. He's still the king until someone dethrones him.

21--Stephentown, 15-1: Pretty low odds for a horse who's never run in a stakes, but his last start was so impressive, and he's been hyped so much since then, we can understand why he isn't higher. Sit back and watch him on Saturday. If he wins, we have a new favorite for sure.

22--Tempera, 15-1: OK, if they say so. What this is all about we have no idea, but a filly training and racing in Dubai coming here and winning the Derby? And at 15-1 no less? She'll have to be pretty special to pull this off.

23 -- USS Tinosa, 30-1: How can you not like a horse who has already won or placed in seven stakes at six different racetracks? He blew the doors off his opponents in the Sham Stakes, so who know how good he really is. Could be, however, he didn't beat much, as he couldn't handle Danthebluegrassman and Cappuchino in previous race.

24--All Other 3-Year-Olds, 4-1: In a year like this, the rightful favorite. Where to begin. You get a number of horses sitting on a breakout race, with Derby pedigrees. To start with, there's D'Coach, Sunday Break, Speed Hunter, Quest Star, Windward Passage, Personal Reward,Forty Nine Deeds, Bob's Image, Clergy, Hot Contest, Flying Free, Holdthehelm, New York-bred monster Lord ofthe Thunder, Coolmore's Irish import Monarchoftheglen, Searcher, Buddha, several Nick Zito late bloomers, and many, many more.

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