Steve Haskin's Belmont Analysis

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Jockey Club Gold Cup -- With a forecast of showers beginning late Friday and continuing into Saturday, there is a good possibility of an off track. There are many degrees of slop and mud at Belmont, so until it can be determined what type of track we'll have for the Gold Cup, it's impossible to predict who would benefit the most from it. In 1998 and '99, sloppy tracks for the Gold Cup took their toll on top horses such as Skip Away, Gentlemen, Lemon Drop Kid, and Behrens, and paved the way for longshot Wagon Limit to win by daylight in '98.

If the track is wet and deep on Saturday, it levels the playing field a great deal, and moves up a die-hard stayer like Sumitas, who won four straight over soft going in Germany early in his career, and if you can handle soft going in Germany, you can handle anything. Remember, this horse has finished ahead of Silvano, was right behind Timboroa, and finished second to Dubai Millennium. The horse he beat in the Caesar Rodney, Runspastum, is no slouch. Also, look for Generous Rosi to move up. He is a group III winner over the soft going at Sandown, a very testing course. He also was second to Chester House in a group III there, and has turned in some strong numbers in his dirt races. Both these horses are hard-knocking stayers, and if either one is in front turning for home, they're going to be extremely tough to catch.

With Albert the Great and A P Valentine coming off back-to-back defeats, and Aptitude still having to prove he can beat the best horses in the country, this looks to be a race to take a chance with a longshot or two...if the track is sloppy or muddy. And the two former Europeans mentioned above are the two who could very well give you a big run for your money. As we said, if either is running well enough to be leading, or right there, turning for home, then you've got a live ticket in your hand.

Champagne -- It really is difficult to look past Officer, regardless of the track condition. Heavyweight Champ could give him a run for his money if he's able to wing it on the lead. Thunder Days and Saarland should like the longer distance, and Jump Start has some big rebounding to do. But until he proves otherwise, Officer looks to be in a class by himself right now.

Beldame -- The money will be pouring in on Flute, and deservedly so. But she's only worth betting in exotics. The win value here looks to be Exogenous, who would have been closer to Flute in the Alabama if she hadn't done a few dipsy doodles turning for home, losing her momentum. She still closed well, then came back and not only upset Fleet Renee in the Gazelle, she had her beat at the quarter pole. This is an improving filly with a big late kick. Beautiful Pleasure, breaking from the rail, would love an off track, and there's no reason why she shouldn't have a big lead in here. If she continues her race-by-race improvement, she'll be a lot tougher to run down this time.

Frizette -- This looks to be a two-horse race between You and Cashier's Dream, but don't count out Cherokee Girl, who is very sharp right now. Running in the seven-furlong Spinaway will help Cashier's Dream a great deal, while You missed the Matron and now has to jump up from 6 1/2 furlongs back on Aug. 13. Cashier's Dream has the experience, with two more starts, and should be tough to get by.

Kelso Handicap -- This a really a wide-open race, with two of the top choices – Forbidden Apple and Manndar – coming off layoffs. Manndar, for example, hasn't run since February. City Zip is an unknown quantity on the grass, leaving a few solid horses who could be a decent price. Sarafan looks ready for a big effort for Neil Drysdale, and remember, he was beaten 1 3/4 lengths by Giant's Causeway last year in the group I St. James's Palace Stakes. Remember, Kimberlite Pipe? He's in Canada now, and has a decent chance to take this field wire-to-wire if he can settle into a comfortable lead. Also look for improved efforts by Bobby Frankel's Blu Air Force and the Michael Dickinson-trained Union One.

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