KEENELAND OMENS

Tables 1-5 provide information on several factors likely to affect the demand for and the profitability of horses during the Keeneland September sale. Table 1 tracks annual highs of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). In the recent past, the escalation of the DJIA paralleled the steady rise in prices at the Keeneland select sessions. However, this year's DJIA high (recorded in May) was down from last year's comparable figure. As August ended, the DJIA dropped below 10,000 for the first time since April.

Since stock market woes did not seem to affect business negatively at earlier select yearling sales this year, it would be no great surprise if prices for September's best horses held steady or continued to grow.

Table 2 and Table 3 trace investment carried into the September sale by commercial breeders and pinhookers. Commercial breeders have paid more for stud fees so they will need higher prices to achieve profits. Pinhookers are at less of a risk because they reduced their investment after a rough experience last September.

As Table 2 shows, the average stud fee (in the year of conception) has risen by 27.7%, from $57,251 last year to $73,134 this year, at the September select sessions. For the September sale as a whole, the average has grown by 24.7%, from $22,360 to $27,886. Between 1999 and 2000, the average stud fee increased 15.2% for the select sessions and 10.9% for the sale as a whole. Last year, commercial breeders did not increase their level of profit over 1999 even though the 2000 average for the entire sale was a record.

The financial pressure is less intense for pinhookers in 2001, based on the statistics listed in Table 3. The average weanling price for yearlings pinhooked to the September select sessions has fallen by 14.5%, from $224,953 to $192,340. The average weanling price for the full sale's pinhooked horses has dropped 7.1%, from $56,356 to $52,374.

Table 4 lists yearlings that passed through the auction ring at the Keeneland July select sale and will be offered again during the Keeneland September select sessions. There are no fewer than 28 horses in this group, a total that is down from 33 in 2000.

Twenty-two other yearlings that were withdrawn from the July sale before passing through the ring are scheduled to be offered in this year's September select sessions. Last year, there were 23 such horses.

Table 5 completes the summary of statistical factors that could influence the September sale's results by listing 33 first-crop stallions with nine or more yearlings apiece catalogued to this year's sale. One year ago, a similar list contained 25.

The rising fees of first crop stallions provide additional examples of increasing financial pressures on commercial breeders who participate in September's market. In the first crop group of 2000, there were eight stallions whose inaugural fees were $20,000 or higher. In 2001, there are 14 inaugural fees that were in the same price range.

Last year's first crop stallion with the most expensive inaugural fee was Spinning World, who stood for $50,000 in 1998 and had 41 Keeneland September yearlings catalogued. This year, the peak is the $60,000 inaugural fee of Coronado's Quest, who has 25 yearlings catalogued for the auction.