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Ky. Derby Trail: Dunkirk Evacuation?
Because of the lack of 3-year-old races this week, we’re going into full detail on After the sensational performance by the $3.7 million son of Unbridled's Song in an allowance race Feb. 19, who will stick around and face this budding star in the Florida Derby (gr. I)? Let’s wait until the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) before we start looking for mass departures. If nothing exciting emerges from what looks to be a brilliant assemblage of 3-year-olds, then the pickin’s will be slim on March 28. This is getting to look an awful lot like the Big Brown explosion of last year, and if The only major foe He showed up in a 1 1/8-mile allowance race last Thursday against a contentious field of maiden winners and stakes horses, and although he drew post 8 in a field of 10, the fans completely ignored his slow time and Beyer number and post position and bet him down to 6-5. They either were impressed by his $3.7-million price tag as a yearling or loved his first start despite the Beyer number or liked the fact that Garrett Gomez flew all the way from Perhaps the most amazing aspect of this horse is the trouble trainer Todd Pletcher has had lining up riders for him. In the colt’s debut, Pletcher’s go-to guy, John Velazquez, opted to ride a 5-1 shot for Tom Albertrani named Then, in his second start, Prado deserted him to ride Rick Dutrow’s impressive maiden winner With Velazquez riding in At first it looked like it would turn into a big waste of time when Prado and Alma d’Oro went right instead of left going into the first turn, fanning Dunkirk about eight-wide. Horses simply do not go that wide in a 1 1/8-mile race, especially at Gulfstream, and win, unless they’re special or they’re running against vastly inferior competition. Gomez felt he was on the best horse and kept Warrior’s Reward, an impressive maiden winner in his debut going a mile, and More Than Willing came charging up on the outside in tandem and it looked as if they were going to make a race of it, but it was the big gray between horses who emerged with a clear lead. It was just prior to his taking the lead that Watching the replay over and over, we never could actually see In the stretch, Gomez hit him once left-handed and Another observation is that Gomez must have gotten a major bicep and forearm workout, pushing very hard on As a point of interest, Santana Six, the Nick Zito-trained colt who finished second to Dunkirk in his debut, broke his maiden in the 10th race Saturday, winning wire-to-wire by 1 1/4 lengths in 1:37 3/5, with the runner-up finishing 11 3/4 lengths ahead of the third horse. The time was three-fifths faster than the earlier division, won by another Zito horse, Just a Coincidence. Once again, The following morning, Now comes the catch. If Mott Revisits the There has been a good deal of debate as to whether Pioneerof the Nile can make the transition to dirt or whether’s he’s mainly a synthetic/turf horse. Of course, no one will know for sure until May 2. The colt’s detractors claim if he were a dirt horse his former trainer, Bill Mott, would not have started him off in turf races. But Mott had a good reason for doing so. “I put him on the turf so I could get him a distance of ground,” Mott said. “Anyone who’s seen him knows he’s not a sprinter, so I wanted to start him off at two turns. And the only way to get a two-turn race in a horse in August at “To me, he always looked a little bit smoother going over the turf than he did on the dirt. He worked well over the dirt as well, but the surface he looked exceptionally well going over was the synthetic, even better than he looked on the turf. Just from watching him work and gallop, I would have rated him synthetic number 1, turf number 2, and dirt number 3, with more to find out on the dirt. He trained at Keeneland on the Polytrack for a month and had a race at Keeneland (finishing third in the grade I Breeders’ Futurity). It wouldn’t surprise me if he handled the dirt well. Most of his dirt works were on the “I’ve always loved the horse. I didn’t like him, I loved him. I said that before he ever ran. I just loved the way he worked, and he had a wonderful disposition around the barn. He was like a pony horse to work around. I’m sure he’s matured physically from the last time I saw him.” When asked if he was surprised to see Pioneerof the Watch out for Ryehill Dreamer and Theregoesjojo With most of the attention in Saturday’s Sham Stakes (gr. III) likely to focus on The Pamplemousse ; the much talked about Mr. Hot Stuff, a full brother to Colonel John ; and the Todd Pletcher shipper Take the Points, don’t ignore Ryehill Dreamer, who is coming off a third to The Pamplemousse in the San Rafael Stakes (gr. III). He’ll be a big price and could surprise a lot of people. Several weeks ago, it was mentioned here that he had been out for five months since his second-place finish in the group II E.B.F. Futurity at the Curragh. He made a big move between calls on the far turn, going from about six lengths back to a length off front-running The Pamplemousse. He had every reason to get a bit tired in the stretch after chasing fractions of :45 4/5 and 1:10 flat in his first race on anything other than grass. He was beaten 4 3/4 lengths, while keeping pace with Square Eddie. He has the stamina to run all day, but it is a turf pedigree. He has turned in three solid works – a half in :48, six furlongs in 1:14 4/5, and seven panels in 1:25 3/5. That last work impressed trainer John Shirreffs. “He wasn’t really ready to run last time, but we had to if we had any hopes of possibly making the “He’s not real big, but he’s husky and a bit of a bully, so it wouldn’t seem like he’d be intimidated by dirt. He’s the independent, bruiser type with a mind of his own. We have to careful if we want to get a rider on his back in the morning. Once the rider is on he’s OK. Before, he used to rear and buck and do all those kinds of things, so we just put the rider up in the stall and let him sit on him for five minutes before bringing him out in the shedrow. That’s just his personality. If you push him he pushes back.” With a race under his belt and stretching out to nine furlongs, the bruiser could be ready to knock some heads around in the Sham. As for Theregoesjojo, his seven-furlong allowance victory in 1:22 2/5 was one of the most impressive races this year by a 3-year-old. Since his brief setback that prevented him from running in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. III), trainer Kenny McPeek has let roll home in his works, and in his five-furlong breeze on Saturday he sat behind two workmates, including the quick Fitzaslew, and ran by them with a :12 flat final eighth. He doesn’t have to win the Fountain of Youth to be considered a live In other -- The Baffert-trained even-money favorite Mayor Marv, who had been improving with every start, went to the front and outran the 9-5 Hidden Bounty to win Saturday’s Turf Paradise Derby by 4 1/2 lengths. -- In the dirt to synthetic department, Perfect Song took his 89 Beyer at -- Interesting allowance race Gulfstream next Saturday, featuring Checklist, who we still feel has tremendous potential and will be heard from, and the McGaughey-trained Gone Astray , fourth in the Champagne Stakes. Champagne runner-up Munnings is eligible for this race, but don’t know if he’ll show up or not. -- Back on the work tab after long absences are Futurity (gr. II) winner Charitable Man and Hopeful (gr. I) runner-up Cribnote. Top 15 1--Old Fashioned /Larry Jones/Unbridled’s Song – Collect Call, by Meadowlake According to Jones, he wasn’t even blowing after the Southwest. It’s obvious Jones has left a lot in the tank, so one shouldn’t fret too much over his 93 Beyer. He defeated a brilliant horse in 2--Pioneerof the Nile/Bob Baffert/Empire Maker—Star of He’s already secured his spot in the 3—Patena/Rick Dutrow/Seeking the Gold—Handpainted, by A.P. Indy Turned in an impressive 6-furlong breeze in 1:14 2/5. Dutrow was looking for about 1:17 and thought he went in 1:20, he did it so easily. Three weeks still to go to Louisiana Derby. Sit tight; should be worth the wait. 4--Desert Party /Saeed bin Suroor/Street Cry —Sage Cat, by Moved him up because his last race in 5—Dunkirk/Todd Pletcher/Unbridled’s Song—Secret Status, by A.P. Indy Why can’t we get freaky horses like this who don’t have to go into the 6—I Want Revenge/Jeff Mullins/Stephen Got Even —Meguial, by Decision to run him next on dirt prompted his big move back on the list. There is something about this horse I like a lot, mainly his impressive stride and a female pedigree that’s loaded with Argentine/English stamina on dirt. Didn't handle the wet Pro-Ride, described as spotty, in the Lewis. Talamo giving up grade I’s to ride him in 7--Hello Broadway/Barclay Tagg/Broken Vow —Nightstorm, by Storm Cat Several passed him with their big efforts, but if he passes his first two-turn test and wins the Tampa Bay Derby, or at least runs a big race, he will catapult right up near the top of the list. I still think very highly of this horse; just want to see him rate again and close like he did in the 8--Friesan Fire /Larry Jones/A.P. Indy—Bollinger, by Dehere He’s done nothing wrong, but it must be noted he has been running every 3-to-5 weeks since his debut in August and will go into the 9—Capt. Candyman Can/Ian Wilkes/Candy Ride —Stormy Way, by Storm Creek By having only one two-turn race this year prior to the 10—Giant Oak /Chris Block/ Too much happening with other horses to keep him high up, but still feel he’ll run big in the Louisiana Derby with a clean trip. He finally had his first breeze since the Risen Star; 5 furlongs in 1:02. Just playing the waiting game like the others. 11--Imperial Council/Shug McGaughey/Empire Maker—Jaramar Rain, by Thunder Gulch Heading up to the 12-- Chocolate Candy/Jerry Hollendorfer/Candy Ride—Crownette, by Whether you like him or not, you have to respect his record, having won four of his last five, and six straight top efforts. Just feel he’s moving steadily in the right direction, and hasn’t taken a backwards step yet. Deviated from his normal running style and still won. 13--Stardom Bound/Bobby Frankel/Tapit —My White Corvette, by She wasn’t even close to being 100% fit for Las Virgenes. She should win the Santa Anita Oaks, but then gets a big test against colts in Santa Anita Derby. If she passes that she’ll have an even bigger test when she has to run on dirt for the first time in a crowded, contentious 14—Flying Pegasus/Ralph Nicks/Fusaichi Pegasus —Lilly Capote, by Capote
15—General Quarters/Mark Miller/SkyMesa—Ecology, by Unbridled’s Song Everyone’s favorite Cinderella story so far. Even if he doesn’t regress and wins the Tampa Bay Derby, we still have to see how he’ll run outside
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Knocking on the Door Theregoesjojo – Big upset chance in the Fountain of Youth Ryehill Dreamer – Ditto for Sham Stakes; could be a real sleeper Midshipman – Big win in Al Bastakiya March 5 would be huge The Pamplemousse – Will be tough in Sham if he gets loose on the lead again Papa Clem – Gets big dirt test in Louisiana Derby Vineyard Haven – Time to send him back to the Flat Out – Consistent closer, ran big in Southwest after horrible start Big Drama – Glad to finally see him back on the work tab; has solid foundation This Ones For Phil – Should keep stretching out in FOY, but in against much tougher Mr. Fantasy – Undefeated NY-bred must face tougher, but has tons of potential Haynesfield – Will tackle Mr. Fantasy for NY-bred supremacy in Mr. Hot Stuff – We’ll find out in Sham if the light bulb stays on Beethoven – Have to wonder if he’s fast enough to handle FOY foes Take the Points – Not typical move going cross-country to run on synthetic, but has potential to be a good one Captain Cherokee – Midnight Lute’s brother is improving; can win inside or outside Fierce Thunder – A bit behind but has a good deal of potential Terrain – Had setback, but always dangerous to pick up a piece of it Sumo – Quality Road – Razor-sharp for Fountain of Youth, should make presence felt Taqarub – Speedster with a ton of stamina in female family Nowhere to Hide – Zito colt, 4th in Risen Star, is on the upswing Masala – Ran well behind Take the Points; Naos – Another Pletcher dark horse to watch in Notonthesamepage – Let’s see how far he can carry his speed Bear's Rocket – Second in Holy Bull on the front end Buzzin n Dreamin – Surprising third in Southwest from Lukas barn Warrior’s Reward – Solid second to Rachel Alexandra – If they decide to take the Charitable Man – Back on work tab, but way behind Brave Victory – Looked good closing in 7f allowance, but distance a question New Bay – Back-to-back sprint wins, but traces to Little Current’s dam Santana Six -- Good-looking maiden winner stretching out
Needing to rebound off poor efforts: Break Water
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