Kentucky Derby Future Wager Analysis (Cont.)
Updated: Sunday, February 18, 2001 10:49 AM
Continued from part 1Horse, odds: AnalysisMonarchos, 20-1:
Posted: Tuesday, February 13, 2001 4:27 PM
Stablemate of Holiday Thunder and Hero's Tribute, he's the young buck who's still unproven, but with the explosive power to be any kind. His odds are based on the brilliance of his last two victories. You're still basically guessing at 20-1, but if you're right, you could be one of those after the Florida Derby proudly saying, "I got Monarchos at 20-1." But despite not having proven himself against quality competition, it's conceivable he might even go off less than that. Street Cry, 20-1:
Some may think he's a hanger or a closing miler, but we'll take 20-1 on him in a second, with no questions asked. His female family cries out for longer distances, and he's proven himself against the best. Godolphin's horses in the past two Derbys have run much better than they should have. All three were very competitive, and this colt is far superior to them, especially with a grade I 2-year-old campaign behind him. If he thrives in Dubai like most horses do, and his coat looks anywhere as good as Worldly Manner's or China Visit's or Curule's, then this could very well be Godolphin's year. We'd sure take 20-1 on this good-looking colt to find out.City Zip, 30-1:
Another horse you really have to admire for his consistency and grit. Look, no one really knows how far he wants to go. Just watch the Fountain of Youth, and if he's still running 'em down at the wire like he usually does, then go for it. Although the odds are meaningless before the race, he's certainly more appealing at 30-1 than some of those at 20-1. Remember, he does have more than enough stamina in his female family, and don't let Carson City fool you. He wasn't really bred to be a sprinter and has sired his fair share of classy two-turn horses.Global Gait, 30-1:
Your guess is as good as Bob Baffert's. But Baffert put up almost a million bucks to get him, and you can get away with a lot less than that if you like him. He could have gone to the Risen Star for an easier spot, but he faces the wolves first time in his new colors. Baffert's not usually wrong about a horse, so sit back and watch him on Saturday. He could be worth a lot more or a lot less after the race. Gold Trader, 30-1:
This is the one Lukas has been bragging about since last spring, and the regally bred colt came through in the Golden State Mile with a sharp mile in 1:35 flat. He didn't beat much, but you know this is a good colt, who could very well be a lot less than 30-1 come April.Hero's Tribute, 30-1:
Where does the line start? We feel last year's Iroquois Stakes was a key race, and the first-, second-, and fourth-place finishers in that race are all 30-1. The third-place finisher, Keats, won big first time out in allowance company. This grand-looking colt has all the pedigree you could ask for, he's got excellent early speed, and he can come from well off the pace. He's been working super, and we can't wait to see him take on A P Valentine in Saturday's allowance sprint.Invisible Ink, 30-1:
An interesting proposition at 30-1. He keeps on winning in allowance company, but hasn't knocked 'em dead yet. Some big, big offers for this colt. Frankly, we have no idea how good he is. He'll have to show it. We've seen too many Gulfstream allowance winners crumble when they hit major stakes competition.Meetyouathebrig, 30-1:
This is the colt who nosed out Hero's Tribute in the Iroquois, coming from the clouds. Not bad for a horse who broke his maiden going 4 1/2 furlongs at Hollywood Park. Been working unobtrusively at Payson Park, and we think he's going to be a good price in the Fountain of Youth. We also think he's got a big chance to win it first crack out. The deep track at Payson has no doubt gotten him very fit, and he should just bounce all over that Gulfstream surface. Oh, to lock in 30-1 on him right now.Mongoose, 30-1:
Another Payson Park resident. With this colt's pedigree, super looks, and beautiful action, Bill Mott could finally be heading to Churchill Downs with a legitimate Derby contender. Mott likes him a lot, and that makes 30-1 on him a great bargain.Ommadon, 30-1:
Boy, these 30-1 live horses just keep coming. Nashua winner and Remsen runner-up has been training well over Belmont training track. Connections have been very high on him since day one. And with his pedigree, he should run all day. But he's been racing on the lead, and we'd rather see him relax off the pace a little more.Outofthebox, 30-1:
All good races except the Iroquois. Impressive in Gulfstream allowance victory on Jan. 3, and has had three big works since. Gets Bailey in the Fountain of Youth. He's got a big chance to win it all. If he does win, don't forget you get Express Tour, who beat him at Calder last year, in the mutuel field.Palmeiro, 30-1:
Well, if you like Millenniun Wind at 10-1, how about this one at 30-1? There's really no telling just how good he is. He's been improving dramatically and he's bred to go long. He'll drop back in distance in the San Rafael and may be vulnerable to some of those California bullets, but if he runs a big race again, then watch him after that.Songandaprayer, 30-1:
Good-looking, expensive yearling has apparently made a successful return from injury suffered last year. His Holy Bull was a pretty good effort going two turns for the first time. If he were a sprinter like some think, he had every right to chuck it after dueling on the pace. But he hung in there tough. Has had a pair of sterling 7-furlongs works, and we'll see how far he can take them this time. Facing much better horses, though. Talk is Money, 30-1:
The real unknown factor in the Fountain of Youth. Being thrown into the lion's den with only two starts behind him, but this $1.8 million yearling does have the potential to be something special. If he's in any way competitive with these horses and makes his presence felt, you're talking about a horse with a great future. His :57 4/5 work the other day wasn't too shabby either.
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