History Maker?

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By Ray Paulick -- Has it really been 25 years since Thoroughbred racing had its last Triple Crown winner? It doesn't seem that long ago to us gray-haired types, but a new generation of racing fans has not had a Triple Crown winner in their lifetime.

The last such dry spell ended in 1973, when Secretariat smashed through the Triple Crown barrier with three electrifying performances. That stopped a 25-year drought dating back to Citation's Triple Crown sweep in 1948.

When it rains, sometimes it pours. Four years after Secretariat, Seattle Slew cruised through the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes (all gr. I), making what many thought to be one of the sporting world's toughest challenges look like child's play. The next year showcased an all-time great rivalry between Affirmed and Alydar, but when the final chapter of the 1978 Triple Crown was written after a never-to-be-forgotten Belmont, Affirmed emerged as the triumphant warrior.

The 1970s produced those three Triple Crown winners, and there were nearly two others. The South American wonder, Canonero II, shocked the racing world when he captured the 1971 Derby as part of the mutuel field, then came back two weeks later to win the Preakness. But his fairy tale ended when he tired to be fourth in the Belmont. In 1979, Spectacular Bid took the first two legs impressively, but received one of the worst big-race rides in history and finished third in the Belmont. When the 1980s rolled around, racing fans couldn't be blamed for anticipating another Triple Crown winner.

Obviously, it isn't easy to accomplish. In the 23 renewals since Spectacular Bid fell short, seven horses have won the Derby and Preakness but lost the Belmont. Four others lost the Derby but captured the final two jewels. Two won the Derby and Belmont but came up short in the Preakness.

Triple Crown winners aren't flukes. Assault, who swept the series in 1946, is the only longshot Derby winner to have gone on to Triple Crown glory. He was the fourth betting choice at 8-1 when he romped in the Derby by eight lengths. No other eventual Triple Crown winner was more than 4-1 in the Derby. None of the last four winners was higher than 9-5. By contrast, none of the seven Derby/Preakness winners that followed Spectacular Bid was the post-time favorite.

Empire Maker will be the heavy favorite for this year's Derby, and if there were futures wagering on a Triple Crown sweep, the Juddmonte Farms homebred would be a short price. Though given just five career starts by Hall of Fame conditioner Bobby Frankel, Empire Maker benefits from stakes experience at two, when he finished third to Eclipse Award runner-up Toccet in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II). This year, after finishing second in what looked like a "schooling race" at Santa Anita in the Sham Stakes, Empire Maker posted a daylight decision in the Florida Derby (gr. I), then won the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I) by a half-length without being asked for his best by jockey Jerry Bailey.

The handsome colt certainly has the pedigree and the connections. Sire Unbridled won the 1990 Derby, and Toussaud, the dam of Empire Maker, has produced four grade I winners and one grade II victor. Saudi Prince Khalid Abdullah's Juddmonte Farms has been North America's champion breeder the last two years. Frankel, one of the best trainers of the modern era never to have won a Triple Crown race, could in 2003 become the first conditioner since Laz Barrera in the late 1970s to win four consecutive Eclipse Awards. Bailey, in the prime of his Hall of Fame career, seldom makes a mistake in the saddle.

Will this be the year for the Triple Crown drought to end? I wouldn't bet against it.

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