Steve Haskin's Breeders' Cup Future Bet Analysis

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With Pool 1 of the Breeders' Cup Future Bet in the books, fans will have some idea what to expect when they wager on Pool 2, which will be conducted from Aug. 9-11. The races in Pool 2 are the John Deere Breeders' Cup Turf, Breeders' Cup Mile, and Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

In Pool 1, conducted from July 4-7, several potential overlays emerged based on recent results. The 25-1 odds on Medaglia d'Oro for the Breeders' Cup Classic looks like a huge price considering the colt's devastating victory in the Jim Dandy Stakes. Even the 12-1 on War Emblem is looking much better after the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner's triumphant return in the Haskell Invitational Handicap. In the Breeders' Cup Distaff, Dancethruthedawn's 25-1 is looking more appealing since her decisive victory in the Go For Wand Stakes at Saratoga, while Summer Colony's dramatic win in the Delaware Handicap boosted her 11-1 odds. In the Sprint, the decision to point Came Home for the seven-furlong King's Bishop Stakes was good news for those who played him at 18-1, even though you could have gotten him at 60-1 in the Classic.

Now, we're on to Pool 2 and the turf horses. In the Breeders' Cup Turf, the mutuel field, as usual, was the morning line favorite, wiht the only horse in single digits being Sakhee at 8-1. This would be a bit of a gamble, considering Godolphin may opt to try and avenge his tough defeat in last year's Classic. Sakhee, who has not started since the Dubai Wolrd Cup in March, actually closed at an appealing 21-1 in the Classic. But the thinking of those who played him stronger in the Turf is that Godolphin also has Street Cry (who destroyed Sakee in the Dubai Wolld Cup) for the Classic and might not want to run the two against each other.

Several top European stars, such as High Chaparral, Grandera, and Golan will have to supplemented at a fee of $180,000. High Chaparral (12-1) definitely is the horse to watch with his emphatic scores in the English and Irish Derby. Stablemate Hawk Wing (15-1) is another top-class colt trained by Aidan O'Brien and is coming off a victory in the Eclipse Stakes against moderate competition. But he ran strong seconds in both the English Derby and English 2,000 Guineas, so he is a versatile colt with the speed and stamina to compete at any distance.

Golan (15-1), Nayef (20-1), and Zindabad (20-1) finished 1,2,3, respectively, in the recent King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Golan is a top-class colt who won last year's English 2,000 Guineas, finished second to Galileo in the English Derby, and was a solid fourth to Sakhee in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. And he is trained by Sir Michael Stoute, who's won the Breeders' Cup Turf twice and loves sending horses to America.

Surprising are the 15-1 odds on the English-trained Bandari, who has won his races by huge margins, but still has only a pair of group III stakes to his credit.

America's main hopes are Beat Hollow (10-1) and Denon (15-1) from the Bobby Frankel barn and With Anticipation (20-1), who defeated Denon in the United Nations Handicap. Beat Hollow is coming off a tough defeat in the Eddie Read Handicap after scoring victories in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic and Manhattan Handicap.

While most of the top horses are in the 10-1 to 20-1 range, there are three 30-1 shots – Cetewayo, Sarafan, and Skipping – who bear watching. All are proven 1 1/2-mile horses, and the oldtimer Cetewayo, who has a dynamite closing punch, has shown in the past he can compete with the best. Skipping is another from the white-hot Frankel barn. Another 30-1 shot, the German colt Boreal, is a top horse on his best day, but seems to prefer soft going.

In the Breeders' Cup Mile, although the field is listed as the 5-1 favorite, the big favorite should be the Aidan O'Brien-trained Rock of Gibraltar (6-1), who has rattled off an amazing six straight group I victories, five of them at a mile. They include the English and Irish 2,000 Guineas, St. James's Palace Stakes, and Sussex Stakes.

Listed at 10-1 is the French-trained Keltos, who has won the Lockinge Stakes and Prix du Muguet this year, but hasn't run since May 18. O'Brien also has the French 2,000 Guineas winner Landseer (15-1), who was second to Rock of Gibraltar in the St. James's Palace Stakes before finishing a close fourth, beaten only 2 1/2 lengths, in the six-furlong July Cup.

Godolphin has the hard-knocking Noverre (12-1), who is coming off seconds in the Sussex Stakes, Lockinge Stakes, and Dubai Duty Free. But he does have a victory in last year's Sussex Stakes to his credit, and finished first in the French 2,000 Guineas, only to be disqualified.

Remember Rebelline, who shocked the world by handing Johannesburg his first career defeat in the Gladness Stakes? Well, she hasn't been beaten since and is listed at 20-1. She has since scored victories going 1 1/4 miles, including the group I Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh on May 26.

The American horses still have not sorted themselves out. Three of the top choices are Del Mar Show, Volponi, and Forbidden Apple, who put on quite a show finishing in that order in the Bernard Baruch Handicap. Del Mar Show, trained by Bill Mott, has won six stakes and is attractive at 20-1, as are Volponi and Forbidden Apple at the same price. Neil Drysdale has an interesting 30-1 shot in former German horse Flying Dash, winner of the Transylvania Stakes at Hawthorne Derby. He was second stretching out to 1 1/4 miles in the recent Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs.

Then there is Congaree at 20-1. After being defeated in the San Diego Handicap, it'll be interested to see if Bob Baffert switches to the turf. Talent-wise, this colt is as good as anyone, but he hasn't shown it yet this year. If he wakes up on the grass, 20-1 will be a huge overlay.

Finally, there is the Filly & Mare Turf. Yes, the field is the favorite at 6-1, with last year's winner Banks Hill next at 8-1. Banks Hill hasn't won since, finishing third in the Prix d'Ispahan and Prince of Wales's Stakes, but still is one of the top grass mares in the world and no doubt will be tough again. She'll have a worthy opponent in Astra (10-1), winner of the Beverly Hills, Gamely, and Santa Barbara Handicaps in her last three starts. Rebelline is also in this field at 20-1, and it would see more likely she'll head in this direction after stretching out successfully to 1 1/4 miles. Another filly in two of the races is the French-trained Aquarelliste (also in the turf at 20-1). She's 12-1 in this race, and there's certainly no doubting her class, as she captured last year's French Oaks and Prix Vermeille and finished second to Sakhee in the Arc de Triomphe. This year, after beating colts in the Prix Ganay, she was third in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud and fourth in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

There are plenty of other classy fillies and mares to choose from here, including Affluent, England's Legend, Golden Apples, Janet, Sophisticat, Tates Creek, and Voodoo Dancer, just to name a few. Watch for the upcoming Beverly D Stakes at Arlington to help sort out this group.

Horses and Odds, Breeders' Cup Future Wager Pool 2

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